Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 3.909122 4.600903 5.367325 6.277707 7.327832 8.499316 9.903340
2025-08-17 2.620048 3.479422 4.538292 5.931307 7.707174 9.886095 12.751671
2025-08-24 1.931260 2.842882 4.071541 5.831004 8.264882 11.488437 16.051389
2025-08-31 1.492119 2.403016 3.729715 5.772121 8.798252 13.068784 19.489704
2025-09-07 1.256213 2.187297 3.637056 6.010646 9.736558 15.279559 24.038392
2025-09-14 1.039115 1.945390 3.446173 6.045365 10.343934 17.048078 28.119491
2025-09-21 0.870140 1.742941 3.273039 6.063072 10.901044 18.774004 32.298306
2025-09-28 0.736168 1.571683 3.116754 6.072173 11.425388 20.481731 36.605560
2025-10-05 0.696815 1.570206 3.259542 6.622635 12.938469 23.970308 44.194873
2025-10-12 0.623396 1.484282 3.227036 6.838852 13.871335 26.551220 50.479768
2025-10-19 0.561085 1.408255 3.199248 7.054904 14.821255 29.245629 57.208090
2025-10-26 0.488716 1.294239 3.073565 7.053326 15.345882 31.207523 62.784093
2025-11-02 0.405727 1.139560 2.839883 6.803440 15.368361 32.274030 66.892953
2025-11-09 0.330698 0.986881 2.583532 6.465113 15.166691 32.892142 70.227364
2025-11-16 0.282842 0.892892 2.445749 6.368788 15.461788 34.519667 75.691696
2025-11-23 0.244408 0.814992 2.332158 6.309278 15.826229 36.319664 81.667119
2025-11-30 0.226248 0.791088 2.350490 6.569666 16.943525 39.799993 91.409607
2025-12-07 0.200864 0.738805 2.284352 6.607914 17.545440 42.227588 99.145073
2025-12-14 0.178125 0.688919 2.215323 6.627335 18.102833 44.607709 106.985417
2025-12-21 0.158034 0.642389 2.146931 6.637283 18.636616 46.982737 115.018626
2025-12-28 0.157829 0.665129 2.285592 7.234424 20.716993 53.081989 131.856214
2026-01-04 0.146813 0.646027 2.294672 7.468885 21.891192 57.172412 144.464774
2026-01-11 0.136721 0.627761 2.303169 7.703110 23.091891 61.431321 157.802112